Early action for the 2026 food & hunger risk

A foreseeable crisis, and a closing window to act before loss accumulates

A super El Niño is forming, conflict is pushing up fertiliser and fuel costs, debt service is crowding out social spending, and aid budgets are shrinking — converging on the same communities at once. This coalition turns forecasts into pre-agreed, pre-financed early action across Sub-Saharan Africa and the IGAD region.

Explore the country tracker See the six workstreams
Window to act: — days to 31 December 2026
Countries scored
24
Ranked on a three-layer early-action model built from monthly data
Top early-action priority
68
South Sudan — rank 1 of 24 on the combined priority score
Widest preparedness gap
92
South Sudan — pressure and harm far outstrip local capacity
Risk pillars combined
5
Conflict · climate · food prices · aid · food insecurity
How the priority score works

Pressure and harm, weighed against local capacity

Each country is scored on three layers built from actual monthly data. Where pressure and harm outstrip the systems meant to absorb them, the preparedness gap — and the case for early action — is greatest.

Layer 1

Pressure

Conflict, climate anomalies, food-price inflation and aid decline — the forces bearing down on a country.

Layer 2

Harm

Food insecurity already realised on the ground (IPC Phase 3+ and 4+ populations).

Layer 3

Capacity

Governance and social-protection systems that determine whether a shock is absorbed or turns into crisis.

Result

Priority

High pressure and harm against weak capacity produce a wide preparedness gap — and a high early-action priority.

The three-layer model

Every pillar is normalised to a 0–100 score using fixed anchors, so countries are comparable. Pressure and harm are combined and weighed against capacity to give each country a preparedness gap, and then an Early Action Priority. Scores read on a common scale: 80–100 extreme, 60–79 severe, 40–59 serious, 20–39 stressed, 0–19 minimal.

24
countries scored on the model
5
risk pillars combined
SSD
rank 1 — highest early-action priority
Aug 2026
latest data month in the model
What we heard · 11 May roundtable
1

The crisis is foreseeable

We know where risks are increasing and which countries are most exposed.

2

The gap is coordination

Many organisations are already acting, but efforts remain fragmented.

3

Early action is underfunded

The missing link is connecting forecasts, financing and delivery systems.

Country tracker

Risk, readiness and delivery across the region

Filter by region, country or risk category to explore the live picture, country by country.

Early Action Priority
Extreme (80–100)
Severe (60–79)
Serious (40–59)
Stressed (20–39)
Minimal (0–19)
Not in coalition frame
Country detail
Twenty-four countries are scored on a three-layer early-action model — Pressure (conflict, climate, food prices, aid), Harm (realised food insecurity) and Capacity (systems that absorb shocks) — combined into a single Early Action Priority. Select any highlighted country on the map to see its scores.
9
Priority countries
8
IGAD members
65
Organisations joined
22
Countries / regions

—
Three layers
Risk pillars (0–100)
Coalition partners present

Country profile

Select a country on the map above to view its full eight-part tracking profile.
Fields populate from the country dataset and Workstream 2 assessments — italic entries show where data is still pending.
Workstream 1 · live risk monitoring

El Niño / ENSO bulletin feed

Updated —

Latest El Niño updates for the coalition's countries, pulled from the authoritative sources. Headlines and short extracts only — select any item to read the full bulletin at its publisher.

Loading latest bulletins…
Sources, with acknowledgement: WMO · NOAA CPC / IRI · ICPAC (IGAD) · FEWS NET · ReliefWeb · Anticipation Hub Feed refreshed automatically. Extracts remain © their publishers.
Coalition partners

Coalition members and partner capabilities

Who is part of the Coalition, where they work, and what they can contribute.

Coalition partners present
None recorded
1–2
3–4
5 or more
Partners by country

Select a country

Click any country to list every Coalition partner working there. Shading shows where partner presence is concentrated.

Largest footprints
    Capability
    The roadmap

    Six coalition workstreams

    Each workstream carries outputs to deliver by end-2026 and a 90-day action set; leads are being confirmed.

    WS1

    Risk monitoring & triggers

    Outputs
    • Shared risk dashboard
    • Agreed trigger framework
    • Consolidated forecasting information
    • Operational decision-support tools
    Key partners
    ICPAC, WMO, FEWS NET, REAP, Anticipation Hub, research institutions
    Lead: to be confirmed
    WS2

    Country readiness & prioritisation

    Outputs
    • Country readiness assessments
    • Identification of delivery pathways
    • Mapping of government systems
    • Prioritised country packages
    Key partners
    Somalia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, South Sudan, Sudan, DRC, Niger, Mozambique & Madagascar
    Lead: to be confirmed
    WS3

    Early action delivery

    Moving assistance before losses accumulate
    Outputs
    • Anticipatory social-protection scale-up
    • Nutrition & WASH continuity
    • Livelihood protection packages
    • Local delivery partnerships
    Key partners
    Government, local organisations, community institutions, philanthropy, climate funds
    Lead: to be confirmed
    WS4

    Financing & fiscal space

    Outputs
    • Financing landscape assessment
    • Mapping of available facilities
    • Trigger-based financing mechanisms
    • Debt & fiscal-space solutions
    Key partners
    CERF, GCF, FRLD, MDBs, philanthropic foundations
    Lead: to be confirmed
    WS5

    Community accountability & local leadership

    Outputs
    • Community-led monitoring
    • Accountability frameworks
    • Local actor engagement mechanisms
    • Household-level tracking systems
    Key partners
    Government, local organisations, community institutions, philanthropy
    Lead: to be confirmed
    WS6

    Coalition building & advocacy

    Outputs
    • Engagement strategy
    • Outreach to finance institutions
    • Political advocacy & visibility
    Key partners
    Government, coalition partners, REAP, Anticipation Hub, IFRC
    Lead: to be confirmed
    By end of 2026

    What success looks like

    • 1Shared risk assessment
    • 2Agreed trigger mechanisms
    • 3Country readiness assessments
    • 4Pre-positioned finance linked to delivery systems
    • 5Community-led monitoring & accountability
    • 6Country-level early action packages
    • 7Stronger coordination across humanitarian, development & finance actors
    11 MAY 2026

    Roundtable

    Crisis confirmed foreseeable; coordination named as the central gap.

    15 JUN 2026

    Four decisions

    Coalition aims, workstreams, leads, and the next 30-day deliverables.

    NEXT 30 DAYS

    Workstream deliverables

    Each workstream confirms leads and its first concrete outputs.

    NEXT 90 DAYS

    Top three actions per workstream

    Plus the support each needs from the wider coalition.

    31 DEC 2026

    Country packages live

    Pre-agreed, pre-financed action operating in priority countries.

    Join the coalition

    Contribute capability, finance or political support — or help reach the actors still missing from the table.

    Get involved